currently available technologies. This fact
places limits on conventional ways of fore-
casting, which tend to say that if a target can-
not be achieved using available technology,
the target must be revised.
work backwards to identify the gaps in tech-
nology that must be bridged if the target is to
be achieved. We believe that this will enable
policymakers to be pro-active and bridge
technology gaps by targeting funds for
research and development.
and also draws on SEI's Greenhouse Deve-
lopment Rights framework (see page 29).
Our `deep carbon reduction scenario' (DCRS)
begins with the assumption that dramatic
cuts are attainable without affecting demo-
graphic and macroeconomic indicators. The
scenario examines the potential for energy
effi ciency and fuel switching across all major
sectors of the economy, including industry,
city generation.
and projects forward to 2050. Up to 2030
this baseline closely matches trends published
in the 2008 International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook. In contrast, the
DCRS predicts cuts of 85% up to 2050
compared with the baseline.
The next stage of the work is to consult with
our partners in China on whether our draft
assumptions are both plausible and desirable.
Their feedback will be used to design a
second, improved version of the scenario.
This will provide more refi ned information on
the measures that are needed to put China
on an ambitious but realistic path to deep
cuts in GHG emissions.
our scenario looks at the potential to:
· make big improvements in energy
and renewable energy
process heat effi ciently, and
e
yco
t
y
.
o
that China has a decisive role in meeting global emissions targets. But how? SEI is challenging
conventional wisdom to create ambitious scenarios for deep cuts in China's emissions.
with current projected trends
and rapid cuts in emissions, China needs more
investment in public transport infrastructure.
PER
H